The Autonomous Vehicle Paradox
Why full self-driving cars might arrive everywhere except where we expect them
Autonomous vehicles are coming back into view, but consumer concerns remain. The public conversation about autonomous vehicles has been dominated by the promise of fully self-driving personal cars. But the real autonomous revolution is happening in spaces where consumers rarely look: industrial applications, specific route services, and controlled environments.
The same McKinsey survey revealed that 96% of mobility executives believe that industry partnerships are vital to spurn innovation, de-risk investments, and build the infrastructure needed to scale up autonomous vehicles. This points to a fundamental truth: autonomous driving isn't a technology problem anymore—it's a coordination problem.
Some innovation is required around the evolving interplay among the main sensors of autonomous vehicles: cameras, radar, and LiDAR. These sensors generate massive amounts of data that must be processed by AI powered by advanced SoCs dedicated to in-vehicle computing. The computational requirements are becoming clearer, but the business models remain murky.
Here's the paradox: while everyone debates Level 5 autonomy for personal vehicles, autonomous systems are quietly revolutionizing freight transport, last-mile delivery, and closed-campus mobility. These applications have defined routes, controlled variables, and clear economic justifications. They're also building the data sets and infrastructure that will eventually enable broader autonomous deployment.
The companies that will profit from autonomous vehicles aren't necessarily those building the sexiest consumer products—they're those solving the most economically viable use cases first. Consumer autonomous vehicles will be the last application, not the first.
Sources:
Deloitte Global Automotive Consumer Study 2025
Autodesk Automotive Industry Trends 2024
McKinsey Automotive Insights 2024