The Death of Third-Party Attribution:
Why Marketing Mix Modeling is Having Its Renaissance
The Cookie Funeral That Never Happened (And Why Smart Marketers Don't Care)
Remember when we all thought 2024 would be the year cookies finally died? Google kept pushing back their timeline, and here we are in 2025, still talking about it. But while everyone was obsessing over cookies, the smart money quietly moved to Marketing Mix Modeling (MMM).
I've been watching this shift for years, and what's fascinating isn't that MMM is having a moment—it's that we're finally admitting what we've known all along: attribution was never as accurate as we pretended it was.
The Attribution Theater We All Participated In
Let's be honest about what attribution really gave us. When multiple platforms claimed credit for the same conversion, adding up to 150% attribution across channels, we all just nodded and adjusted our spreadsheets. We knew the math didn't work, but the story was compelling.
Now, with 75-90% of marketers expected to migrate from last-touch attribution to causal models this year, we're finally having the conversation we should have had a decade ago: correlation isn't causation, and knowing someone clicked an ad before buying doesn't mean the ad caused the purchase.
Why MMM is Different This Time
MMM in 2025 isn't your father's marketing mix modeling. Cloud computing and open-source tools have demolished the old barriers—no more waiting six months for a $200K analysis that's outdated by the time you get it.
Modern MMM platforms now offer:
Real-time insights instead of annual reports
Transparent methodologies you can actually understand
Integration with incrementality testing for validation
Granular channel-level recommendations
The Triangulation Advantage
The real breakthrough isn't replacing attribution with MMM—it's using them together with incrementality testing in what experts call "triangulation." This approach gives you the broad strategic view from MMM, the tactical insights from attribution, and the causal validation from incrementality testing.
Smart brands are building what I call "measurement portfolios"—diversified approaches that don't put all their eggs in one methodological basket.
What This Means for Your 2025 Strategy
If you're still running your business on last-click attribution alone, you're essentially driving with a rearview mirror. The brands that will win in 2025 are those embracing measurement approaches that account for the full customer journey, not just the last click before purchase.
The cookie apocalypse that never came taught us something valuable: obsessing over tracking technology misses the point. The future belongs to marketers who can extract insights from imperfect data, not those who demand perfect tracking.