Why Walmart Just Changed the Adtech Game (And The Trade Desk Should Be Worried)
The retail giant's breakup with its programmatic partner signals a bigger shift: first-party data owners are done sharing the profits
The Partnership That Wasn't Built to Last
Walmart quietly eliminated the exclusivity clause in its Trade Desk partnership last month, and The Trade Desk's stock immediately dropped 6%. But focusing on the stock price misses what's actually happening here.
For four years, The Trade Desk powered Walmart Connect's programmatic capabilities, giving advertisers a familiar interface to access Walmart's shopper data. It seemed like the perfect arrangement—Walmart got sophisticated ad tech without building it themselves, and The Trade Desk got exclusive access to one of retail's most valuable data sets.
According to The Information's reporting, Walmart has grown frustrated with The Trade Desk's fees and is now exploring building its own buying platform. This isn't surprising when you consider that Walmart Connect is projecting ad revenue to reach $6.18 billion by 2025, up from $3.19 billion last year. At that scale, even small percentage fees to third parties represent hundreds of millions in lost margin.
But there's something bigger at play. Walmart's recent Vizio acquisition for $2.3 billion suddenly makes more sense. They're not just tweaking their ad tech stack—they're building something entirely new.
What 150 Million Weekly Shoppers Actually Means
Everyone talks about Amazon's dominance in retail media—they control about 77% of the U.S. retail media ad market according to eMarketer. But that dominance comes entirely from online behavior. Walmart has something different: the shopping patterns of 150 million Americans who visit their stores every week.
The difference matters more than most advertisers realize. Amazon sees what you search for and buy online. Walmart sees how you actually shop—the dad who researches grills online for weeks but buys a completely different model after talking to a store associate, the shopper who consistently buys private label online but name brands in-store.
As Brian Mandelbaum, CEO of Attain, told Business Insider: "Retailers realize that they cannot maximize the value of their shopper data by building walls around it. They stand to drive much greater growth by opening their data up to advertisers in a privacy-safe way."
This is where Walmart's acquisition of Vizio becomes strategic. Those 18 million SmartCast accounts aren't just streaming viewers—they're a bridge between what people watch and what they buy, both online and in physical stores. Walmart can now track the complete journey from TV ad exposure to in-store purchase, something Amazon cannot do at scale despite their Prime Video advertising push.
Recent Pacvue data shows this is already working: Walmart Connect's click-through rates jumped 55% year-over-year in Q4 2024, while maintaining cost-per-click rates around $0.67—significantly lower than Amazon's rates.
The Streaming Moment Nobody Saw Coming
Connected TV is reshaping retail media faster than anyone predicted. According to IAB's 2025 forecast, digital video will capture nearly 60% of all TV/video ad spend this year, with CTV growing at double-digit rates. But here's what's really interesting: retail media CTV is growing three times faster than retail media search.
Jeffrey Bustos from Merkle put it simply: "Retail media data should make CTV unstoppable."
Walmart understood this before most. Their Vizio acquisition wasn't about selling TVs—it was about owning the full stack. They can now offer advertisers something unique: the ability to target viewers based on actual purchase history, then measure if those viewers bought the advertised products in Walmart stores. According to early tests reported by Walmart Connect, brands using this closed-loop measurement saw a 3.5x increase in attributed return on assets compared to standard benchmarks.
Amazon's Prime Video ads are growing rapidly—Tinuiti reported their clients' spending jumped 8x from Q1 to Q4 2024. But Amazon faces a constraint Walmart doesn't: they have to balance ad load against the premium experience Prime members expect. Every additional ad spot risks eroding the value proposition of a Prime membership.
Meanwhile, The Trade Desk is trying to aggregate retail data through partnerships with Instacart and Ocado, as reported by AdExchanger. It's a logical strategy, but it highlights their fundamental challenge: they're trying to piece together what Walmart and Amazon own outright.
What Happens When Measurement Actually Works
The shift happening right now isn't just about who has the most data or the best technology. It's about solving advertising's attribution problem. As Drew Cashmore from Vantage told eMarketer: "It can't just be about adding a new feature. Everything must work together to be truly impactful."
For brands advertising today, the landscape is shifting in three critical ways:
First, the arbitrage opportunity on Walmart won't last. Their CPCs are still 20-30% below Amazon's according to Pacvue data, but that gap narrowed from 40% just a year ago. Brands establishing strong positions on Walmart Connect now will have advantages that become much more expensive to acquire later.
Second, creative requirements are converging. The same Walmart Connect campaign might need assets for sponsored products, streaming ads, in-store displays, and digital screens at checkout. Brands treating these as separate campaigns are missing the point—it's one customer journey that happens to touch multiple screens.
Third, measurement is finally becoming comparable across platforms. When advertisers can actually track a customer from seeing a CTV ad to making a purchase (online or in-store), the ROI conversation changes completely. This is why 65% of marketers now classify CTV as a performance channel, according to Advertising Week and MNTN research.
The Next 18 Months
Based on current trajectories and insider conversations, here's what's likely to unfold:
Walmart will continue building direct relationships with streaming platforms. Their recent partnerships with Roku, TikTok, and Disney are just the beginning. By mid-2026, expect Walmart to have its own DSP fully operational, reducing reliance on any third-party platform.
Amazon will be forced to open up their measurement black box. As Walmart offers more transparent attribution and cross-channel measurement, Amazon's closed system becomes a competitive disadvantage. Look for gradual changes to Amazon Marketing Cloud that allow for more interoperability.
The Trade Desk won't disappear, but their role will fundamentally change. They'll likely become the platform of choice for mid-tier retailers who need sophisticated ad tech but can't justify building their own. Think of them as the Shopify of retail media—powerful enough for most, but not for the biggest players.
For the 200+ retail media networks currently operating, consolidation is inevitable. Forrester's research suggests that removing Amazon from the equation dramatically reduces the total addressable market. Most smaller RMNs will need to either merge, join aggregation platforms, or accept being niche players.
The smartest advertisers aren't waiting to see who wins. They're building capabilities to operate effectively across all major platforms while maintaining enough flexibility to adapt as the landscape shifts. Because if the last year taught us anything, it's that even the strongest partnerships in adtech are temporary when the stakes get high enough.